Trump’s 100% China Tariff Threat Seen as Unlikely to Materialize

Former President Donald Trump's proposal to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports by November appears more like political posturing than actionable policy. Nomura analysts highlight Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent comments suggesting a trade truce remains the probable outcome, mirroring April's tariff threats that dissolved into a May agreement.

The economic calculus works against escalation. China's export controls on rare-earth minerals and reduced U.S. soybean purchases already strain American manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Additional tariffs WOULD compound these vulnerabilities without clear strategic benefit.

Market observers note the cyclical nature of such threats. Like previous episodes, this MOVE likely serves domestic messaging purposes rather than signaling imminent policy shifts. With both economies showing fatigue from prolonged trade tensions, analysts anticipate quiet dissolution of the proposal as economic realities take precedence.